As the NFL season kicks off this week, I thought it was a good time to talk about expectations—and how easily they can distort the way we judge success and failure.

And there may be no better example than the careers of two quarterbacks who entered the NFL together more than 20 years ago.

In 2005, the San Francisco 49ers had the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft.

Their decision was simple: Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers.

And it was very close, and the team was split.

Rodgers was considered more NFL-ready, but Smith had qualities the 49ers believed made him a better fit for the team they wanted to build.

They chose Smith.

Then something strange happened.

Rodgers didn't go second.

He fell all the way to No. 24.

And suddenly a very small difference in how two quarterbacks had been evaluated became a massive difference in how everyone expected their careers to turn out.

Smith was the No. 1 pick.

Rodgers was the guy who fell to 24.

The expectations created by those numbers were enormous.

For years, Smith was treated like a disappointment—the No. 1 pick who never became the superstar he was supposed to be.

Rodgers became one of the greatest draft steals in NFL history.

Now imagine changing just one thing.

Swap their draft positions.

Rodgers goes No. 1, and Smith goes No. 24.

It easily could have happened.

Now, keep their careers exactly the same.

Suddenly, Smith looks like an incredible value.

Rodgers looks like exactly what you hoped you were getting with the first pick.

Same players.

Same careers.

Different expectations.

We like to think we judge outcomes.

Most of the time, we're judging outcomes versus expectations.

And often those expectations are built on surprisingly small things.

The 49ers had to choose between two quarterbacks they considered very good prospects.

They made a distinction that largely only mattered to them.

But the 23-pick gap created by that distiction changed the measuring stick for both.

One eventually looked like a disappointment.

The other looked like a steal.

The careers created the outcomes.

The expectations created the labels.

We do something similar to ourselves.

We say:

I should be further along.

This should feel easier.

I thought I'd be better at this by now.

Maybe you thought you'd make more money by this age.

Maybe you thought marriage would be easier by now.

Maybe you thought you'd have parenting figured out.

Maybe you thought you'd be in better shape.

Maybe you thought you'd feel more certain about what you're doing with your life.

And when reality doesn't match the picture we had in our heads, we assume reality is the problem.

So we ask:

Why haven't I gotten there yet?

But we rarely ask:

Where did "there" come from?

Who decided where you were supposed to be by now?

Was that expectation realistic?

Was it even yours?

Or did some relatively small decision, comparison, comment, or assumption years ago establish a measuring stick you've been carrying ever since?

A surprising amount of disappointment comes from expectations we never stopped to examine.

So, before labeling something or someone a failure, it might be worth asking:

We spend a lot of time evaluating how our lives compare to our expectations.

We spend far less time evaluating the expectations themselves.

Sometimes you really did fall short.

But sometimes the distance between success and disappointment was created by a measuring stick you never chose in the first place.

Note to Self: I know you need to type that email, send that text, or look up that thing on Wikipedia.

Go to bed.

I finally got around to watching Project Hail Mary.

First, does anyone else struggle to work up the energy to start a two-and-a-half-hour movie these days? I see that runtime, and it feels like a big commitment.

Anyway, just like pretty much everything I’d heard about it, Project Hail Mary was great.

My son wandered in about halfway through, having no idea what was going on, and within a few minutes he was completely locked in. He spent the rest of the movie on the edge of his seat.

It’s smart, funny, tense, surprisingly emotional, and one of those movies that’s just fun to watch.

If you haven’t caught it yet, I highly recommend it.

Until next time—
🔥Keep the fires burning,
— Clay

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